Are you shell-shocked? Are you wondering what’s really going on in the market? The truth is probably more frightening than even your worst fears. And yet, you won’t hear about it anywhere else because “they” can’t tell you. “They” are the U.S. Federal Reserve and the U.S. Treasury Department, and they can’t tell you what’s really going on because there’s nothing they can do about it, except what they’ve been trying to do - add liquidity.

 

算一下美国金融危机有多严重


对金融危机最普遍的官方解释是次贷问题，然而次贷总共不过几千亿，而美国政府救市资金早已到了万亿以上，为什么危机还是看不到头？有文章指出危机的根源是金融机构采用“杠杆”交易；另一些专家指出金融危机的背后是62万亿的信用违约掉期（Credit Default Swap, CDS）。那么，次贷，杠杆和CDS之间究竟是什么关系？它们之间通过什么样的相互作用产生了今天的金融危机？在众多的金融危机分析文章中，始终没有看到对这些问题的简单明了的解释。本文试图通过自己的理解为这些问题提供一个答案，为通俗易懂起见，我们使用了几个假想的例子。有不恰当之处欢迎批评讨论。

一。杠杆。目前，许多投资银行为了赚取暴利，采用20－30倍杠杆操作，假设一个银行A自身资产为30亿，30倍杠杆就是900亿。也就是说，这个银行A以 30亿资产为抵押去借900亿的资金用于投资，假如投资盈利5％，那么A就获得45亿的盈利，相对于A自身资产而言，这是150％的暴利。反过来，假如投资亏损5％，那么银行A赔光了自己的全部资产还欠15亿。

二。CDS合同。由于杠杆操作高风险，按照规定，不允许银行进行这样的冒险操作。所以就有人想出一个办法，把杠杆投资拿去做“保险”。这种保险就叫CDS。比如，银行A为了逃避杠杆风险就找到了机构B。机构B可能是另一家银行，也可能是保险公司，诸如此类。A对B说，你帮我的贷款做违约保险怎么样，我每年付你保险费5千万，连续10年，总共5亿，假如我的投资没有违约，那么这笔保险费你就白拿了，假如违约，你要为我赔偿。A想，如果不违约，我可以赚45亿，这里面拿出5亿用来做保险，我还能净赚40亿。如果有违约，反正有保险来赔。所以对A而言这是一笔只赚不赔的生意。B是一个精明的人，没有立即答应A的邀请，而是回去做了一个统计分析，发现违约的情况不到1％。如果做一百家的生意，总计可以拿到500亿的保险金，如果其中一家违约，赔偿额最多不过50亿，即使两家违约，还能赚400亿。A,B双方都认为这笔买卖对自己有利，因此立即拍板成交，皆大欢喜。

三。CDS市场。B做了这笔保险生意之后，C在旁边眼红了。C就跑到B那边说，你把这100个CDS卖给我怎么样，每个合同给你2亿，总共200亿。B想，我的400亿要10年才能拿到，现在一转手就有200亿，而且没有风险，何乐而不为，因此B和C马上就成交了。这样一来，CDS就像股票一样流到了金融市场之上，可以交易和买卖。实际上C拿到这批CDS之后，并不想等上10年再收取200亿，而是把它挂牌出售，标价220亿；D看到这个产品，算了一下，400亿减去220亿，还有180亿可赚，这是“原始股”，不算贵，立即买了下来。一转手，C赚了20亿。从此以后，这些CDS就在市场上反复的抄，现在CDS的市场总值已经抄到了62万亿美元。

四。次贷。上面A,B,C,D,E,F.... 都在赚大钱，那么这些钱到底从那里冒出来的呢？从根本上说，这些钱来自A以及同A相仿的投资人的盈利。而他们的盈利大半来自美国的次级贷款。人们说次贷危机是由于把钱借给了穷人。笔者对这个说法不以为然。笔者以为，次贷主要是给了普通的美国房产投资人。这些人的经济实力本来只够买自己的一套住房，但是看到房价快速上涨，动起了房产投机的主意。他们把自己的房子抵押出去，贷款买投资房。这类贷款利息要在8％－9％以上，凭他们自己的收入很难对付，不过他们可以继续把房子抵押给银行，借钱付利息，空手套白狼。此时A很高兴，他的投资在为他赚钱；B也很高兴，市场违约率很低，保险生意可以继续做；后面的C,D, E,F等等都跟着赚钱。

五。次贷危机。房价涨到一定的程度就涨不上去了，后面没人接盘。此时房产投机人急得像热锅上的蚂蚁。房子卖不出去，高额利息要不停的付，终于到了走头无路的一天，把房子甩给了银行。此时违约就发生了。此时A感到一丝遗憾，大钱赚不着了，不过也亏不到那里，反正有B 做保险。B也不担心，反正保险已经卖给了C。那么现在这份CDS保险在那里呢，在G手里。G刚从F手里花了300亿买下了100个CDS，还没来得及转手，突然接到消息，这批CDS被降级，其中有20个违约，大大超出原先估计的1％到2％的违约率。每个违约要支付50亿的保险金，总共支出达1000亿。加上300亿CDS收购费，G的亏损总计达1300亿。虽然G是全美排行前10名的大机构，也经不起如此巨大的亏损。因此G濒临倒闭。

六。金融危机。如果G倒闭，那么A花费5亿美元买的保险就泡了汤，更糟糕的是，由于A采用了杠杆原理投资，根据前面的分析，A赔光全部资产也不够还债。因此A 立即面临破产的危险。除了A之外，还有A2，A3,...,A20，统统要准备倒闭。因此G,A,A2,...,A20一起来到美国财政部长面前，一把鼻涕一把眼泪地游说，G万万不能倒闭，它一倒闭大家都完了。财政部长心一软，就把G给国有化了，此后A,...,A20的保险金总计1000亿美元全部由美国纳税人支付。

七。美元危机。上面讲到的100个CDS的市场价是300亿。而CDS市场总值是62万亿，假设其中有10％的违约，那么就有6万亿的违约CDS。这个数字是300亿的200倍。如果说美国政府收购价值300亿的CDS之后要赔出1000亿。那么对于剩下的那些违约CDS，美国政府就要赔出20万亿。如果不赔，就要看着A20,A21,A22等等一个接一个倒闭。无论采取什么措施，美元大贬值已经不可避免。


以上计算所用的假设和数字同实际情况会有出入，但美国金融危机的严重性无法低估。

• Hate your boss? They probably hate you too
• Negativity, tardiness, bullying worst traits
• Recruitment: Finding the best workers a matter of timing

Almost half of employees say they hate their boss, and jobseekers say bad management is the number one reason they quit. But have you ever thought that while you’re complaining about the boss in the break room, she’s probably sick of you too? Organsiational psychologist and partner at Mentors Phsycology for Business Dr Susan Nicholson says negativity, making excuses and spreading gossip are bosses biggest complaints about staff.

Here are ten things your boss hates about you.

You're unreliable

An employee who says one thing and do the other, doesn't complete tasks or meet deadlines and always has excuses causes headaches for their boss and can make them look bad to the higher ups - a big no-no. "What really is difficult is the person who doesn't deliver, who makes promises and then the boss ends up taking a lot more work on their behalf, and the boss has to follow up," says organisational psychologist and partner at Mentors Psychology for Business Dr Susan Nicholson.

You won't fess up to mistakes

People who try to cover up mistakes instead of owning up infuriate bosses, says Dr Nicholson, who calls it the number one the career killer. "Bosses are far more able to handle people making mistakes than covering things up," she explains. "If an employee makes excuses, lies or doesn't actually take responsibility for their part in the problem, it infuriates bosses." But bosses need to create an environment where people feel they won’t get in trouble if they make a mistake, says Dr Nicholson.

You gossip too much

Talking about people behind their back, stirring up trouble and malicious gossip create hassle for the boss who just wants a peaceful, productive team. Worst of all, bosses feel powerless in the face of office rumours. Dr Nicholson says negative office gossip often occurs because workers are reluctant to own up to the fact that they don't like a co-worker. "But the boss hears and sees that people aren't getting along," she says. "It's one of those areas where the boss gets quite angry and frustrated about it, but doesn't know how to handle it," says Dr Nicholson. "The 'just do it' type of boss is going to find it more frustrating than the boss that delights in the fact that people are people and you have to manage people."

Nothing's ever good enough for you

There's one in every team - the employee who constantly gripes, points out that new ideas are destined to fail or sits in meetings scowling and smirking. Cynical workers say they are realistic, but their negativity takes a toll on office morale. Negativity and complaining are bosses biggest pet peeves, with bosses saying creates an 'us versus them' attitude, says Dr Nicholson. "The capability issues, they can be worked on," she says. "But if someone's attitude, lack of motivation or particularly a negative attitude towards the company - complaining, being cynical. Nothing’s ever good enough."

You hate change

Workers love to grumble, but those that can't adapt to any change annoy their bosses. In larger companies, the change is usually coming from the top and out of your boss's control anyway. Often, the boss is implementing decisions that have come from above and may not be that enthusiastic about them either. Having to sell someone else's idea to a negative employee is no one's idea of a good day.

You smell

Workers who prefer the scent of their own musk or who forgo toothpaste in favour of a solid diet of garlic are a tricky matter for bosses. Bosses dread having to talk to a staff member about their dress and appearance. And as an adult in the workplace, your boss probably feels like they shouldn't have to explain the concept of soap.

You're always late

Tardiness, sick days or long lunches add up, and bosses notice - especially if you then lie about it. Don't think your boss doesn't notice if you are constantly cutting corners. Taking frequent sick days, constantly being late and always being out at lunch when the boss comes looking for you mean you are unreliable, lazy and probably are just creating resentment from your co-workers.

You're over-eager

Just as bad as lazy workers are the overeager ones, say bosses. Your boss doesn't want to have to think up extra projects for you or spend much time listening to your new ideas on how to overhaul the workplace. And they certainly don't want to have to worry that you're after their job.

You run your personal life from your desk

Spend hours browsing eBay, updating your facebook profile or recounting last night's drunken revelry at the top of your voice over the phone will get you noticed for all the wrong reasons. Spending too much time on personal matters while on the clock will also annoy your co-workers and cause resentment, something your boss probably doesn’t want to have to deal with.

You're a bully

Bullies who shout, swear and intimiate their peers are a major disruption and can cause productivity to plummet - all when your boss just wants a peaceful, busy team. More than a quarter of workers saying they have been bullied at work, and more than half say they have witnessed bullying in the workplace, meaning a drop in productivity that will hurt the bottom line - not something your boss wants.

 

There’s a lot of very sad news in the world at the moment, and it can be pretty depressing. It’s easy to expect the worst when people are talking about food shortages and rent crises and recessions and exploding interest rates and grocery price incease $140 monthly. Scary stuff! Fair enough - our eyes need to be open to the injustices in the world, but it doesn’t help for us to become overwhelmed with shame and hopelessness and despair. Looking into scary stuffs in a positive way, it's inspiring! back to us, we need to set up goals and build up a structure to fit your dream.

 

There is an old saying that goes “if you aim at nothing, you will hit it every day”.

A lot people are going from drama to drama with no idea where the ultimate outcome was. They had no driving motivation to achieve anything other than trying to constantly stay in front, at best.  Mate, you need to set goals to have something to aim for.

To reach any goal that you set, it makes it easier to achieve it if you know what will be involved. It makes it so much easier if you structure yourself and your direction. Please don’t forget about your personal life either. There needs to be balance and structure in both your work and your personal life. If there is no structure in your personal life, you may tend to become a bit of a workaholic, which in the end may lead to more problems than benefits.

Like a fine-tuned car that runs on premium fuel, the best of engine oils and the proper parts, so your whole life should be structured and balanced in the same fashion. You need the best ingredients in your pursuit of your goals and dreams.